Measurement and Analysis of Affecting Factors of Wuxi's Industrial Carbon Emission
测算1992-2010年无锡工业碳排放,发现其呈S型增长,人均工业增加值是主要促进因素,能源效率和产业结构是抑制因素,FDI也有贡献,并预测未来5年每年增长2.8%。
This article calculates the industrial carbon emission of Wuxi city from the year of 1992 to 2010 by applying the carbon emission formula from the IPCC.It indicates that the industrial carbon emission of Wuxi has been grown fast for recent 18 years and show remarkable periodical and S curve.Secondly,the paper analyzes the influence factor to the industrial carbon emission in Wuxi with linear regression analysis model.The result shows that the industrial added value per person is the main promotion factor,energy efficiency and the coefficient of industrial structure is the main restraining factor,and FDI also makes rather contribution to the industrial carbon emission.Then the authors predict the industrial carbon emission in Wuxi applying grey prediction model,and the result is that the industrial carbon emission in Wuxi will grow slowly at 2.8% per year in 5 future years,but a rather large quantity of growth because of huge basic number.At last,some countermeasures to reduce the industrial carbon emission of Wuxi is put forward,that is,seed up the industrial structural adjustment,promote research and develop of industrial low-carbon technique,improve energy efficiency,actively develop clean energy and rationally guide foreign investment.