The Evolutionary Trend of CO_2 Emissions and Its Spatial Differentiation in China: Based on R/S Method
采用R/S方法计算中国30个省份1990-2008年CO2排放总量和排放强度的赫斯特指数，分析其演化特征与空间分异，发现多数省份排放总量持续上升而强度持续下降，但减排仍面临挑战。
The paper calculated the Hurst index and fractal dimension for evolution of total CO2 emissions and emission intensity of the 30 provinces in mainland China during 1990-2008 by adopting R/S method.Then the evolutionary characteristic of total emission and emission intensity of CO2 at provincial level was analyzed.The paper classified four types of regions based on the spatial distribution pattern of Hurst index,and compared the variances of evolutionary characters for total emission and emission intensity among them.The result shows that 75.86% of the provinces in mainland China have the strong sustainable increasing trend in the evolution of total CO2 emission,and for the evolution of CO2 emission intensity,64% of the provinces have the strong sustainable decreasing trend.The sustainable decreasing trend of emission intensity in majority region is good news for the accomplishment of the target of cutting CO2 emissions per unit of GDP by 20-25% from 2005 levels by 2020.However,for the most of provinces,the durability of increasing of total emission is higher than the emission intensity decreasing;in addition,there still are some regions which have the weaker decreasing trend in evolution of emission intensity,even the trend of emission intensity decreasing in some regions showed anti-sustainability.All of these indicated that it is still difficult for China to cut CO2 emission further,especially to fulfill the target of decoupling the CO2 emission from economic growth cutting because China's economic development is still at the stage of high speed of industrialization and urbanization.