The Impacts of Sub-prime Crisis on China's Economy
利用1992年1月至2009年6月的月度数据，研究美国次贷危机对中国经济的影响，发现中国进出口受冲击最大，而财政和货币政策显著扩张。
This paper studies the impacts of the current recession in the U.S.on China's economy.Monthly data from January 1992 to June 2009 are used in the empirical analysis.Following Lumsdaine and Prasad (2003),a common factor is firstly created to measure the degree of crisis in the U.S.from its money supply and equity market index.Then,thenormal trackwithout this crisis is predicted based on the historical performance of China's economy.Finally,seemingly uncorrelated regressions(SURs) are utilized to examine the effects of the sub-prime crisis in the U.S.on China.The results show that imports and exports of China suffered the most negative impacts from the crisis in the U.S.and the deepening of the crisis enlarged the deceleration of the international trade in China.In addition,in respond to the crisis,both the fiscal and monetary policy in China expanded significantly,and the more severe was the crisis the larger was the scale of policy expansion, especially the monetary policy.In comparison,private investment,consumption and stock market performance in China had not been affected significantly by the crisis between 2007 and the first half of 2009.