The International Monetary System in the Era of Post-Financial Crisis:What Policy Options Does China Have?
分析了金融危机后国际货币体系的演变，指出美元信用基础动摇，提出两种可能路径：建立超主权储备货币或形成多货币锚定体系，认为后者更可能，建议中国推动人民币国际化。
This paper analyzes the evolution of the international monetary system after the financial crisis.We first provide a quick review of three fundamental features of the world economy before the international financial crisis,including rapid growth of emerging market economies,impressive pace of globalization,and rapid financial deepening and cross-border capital flow.These features of the world economy gave rise to an ever-increasing international demand for international reserve currencies such as the US dollar.Consequently,the current international monetary system which was shaped before the financial crisis has three main noteworthy characteristics: (1)the US dollar is the most important reserve currency relied heavily by central banks worldwide;(2) the Euro has been emerging rapidly competing with the US dollar;(3)monetary policies and monetary conditions of the United States have tremendous influence in the world economy.We argue that after the financial crisis, the credit foundation of the US dollar has been shaken significantly and therefore the current international monetary system is not sustainable in the long-run.Based on these analyses,we show that there are two alternative cases of the evolution of the international monetary system in the post-financial crisis era.The first case is that countries in the world cooperate to establish a globally accepted reserve currency,which beyond the control of any sovereign state.The other alternative is that the world's sovereign currencies compete in international transactions and gradually a multi-currency anchored international monetary system will emerge.The most likely anchor currencies are the US Dollar,the Euro,and the Chinese RMB.We believe that by far,the multi-currency anchored system is the more likely case.We therefore suggest that while China should participate in the international monetary system reform as well as the IMF reform to push for the first possibility in order to showcase her commitment to international cooperation,however,China also needs to prepare for the second possibility. We thus conclude that pushing for the internationalization of the Chinese RMB is the most practical and effective policy the Chinese government for years to come.