The Autonomy of Monetary Policy in China from 1996 to 2008
从外部冲击和内部机制两方面检验中国货币政策的自主性，发现1996至2008年间货币政策自主性总体保持，尽管外汇储备变动是货币量变动的决定性原因。
This paper examines the autonomy of Chinas monetary policy from two aspects;(1) Analyzing the causality between foreign exchange reserve and the quantity of money by using Granger causality methodology from external shocks,but the effect may be counteracted by sterilization operations in fixed exchange rate system; (2) Analyzing whether the variation of interest rate leads to the co-rotating variation of quantity of money from internal mechanism by Vector Error Correction Model based on Vector Autoregression with price,quantity of money and interest.The results indicate that the autonomy of China's monetary policy maintains systematically from 1996 to 2008,even the Granger causality shows that the variation of foreign exchange reserve has been a decisive cause of the variation of quantity of money since 1998,but the ECM shows that the autonomy of China 's monetary policy has not systematically restricted in the inspected period.