Empirical Studies on the Climate Change and Variation of Regional Apple Production Strcuture in China
基于1984-2012年省级面板数据，发现中国苹果产区从东向西转移，种植边界北移，并利用空间计量模型证实气温、日照、自然灾害及空间溢出效应对生产布局的影响。
The trend of Chinese provincial apple structure variation was analyzed based on the panel data of provincial apple production in China from 1984 to 2012 both on the region and province level, which finds that apple production areas have gradually transferred from east to west, western Loess Plateau and Sinkiang, the apple planting borders of major production provinces also gradually northward with the climate warming. Then effects of climate change to the variation were studied using spatial econometrics model based on the Nerlove model. The empirical results show that:temperature has positive effect to Chinese apple production layout, while sunshine hours and natural hazard have negative effects; apple producing has significantly positive spatial spillover effects; non- agricultural opportunities, compared benefits, technological progress and related policy also have effects.