A NOVEL COMBINED FORECASTING MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF REGIONAL LOGISTICS DEMAND
针对单一预测方法的不足，提出一种基于预测有效度算法的组合预测模型，结合线性回归和GM(1,1)模型，用广东江门数据验证其有效性，帮助物流规划者提高预测精度。
In view of the weaknesses of simplex forecasting method for the prediction of regional logistics demand, a novel and more effective forecasting method called combination forecasting model based on forecasting effective measure algorithm is developed in this paper, which can remarkably improve the forecasting ability through combining multiple simplex forecasting methods' results and take the full use of their advantages meanwhile overcoming their shortcomings to some degree. Using the relevant data of Jiangmen, Guangdong province, linear regression, GM (1, 1) model and the combination forecasting model are introduced to forecast the regional logistics demand, which illustrates the proposed combined forecasting model for the prediction of regional logistics demand is effective and valid.