When Do Capital Inflow Surges End in Tears?
基于1980-2014年53个新兴市场的数据，研究发现资本账户开放的国家并非只能被动接受全球事件影响；在资本流入繁荣期积累宏观金融脆弱性、且主要依赖债务流入的国家，其资本流入激增更可能以金融危机告终。
We investigate in a sample of 53 emerging markets over 1980-2014 whether countries with open capital accounts are necessarily at the mercy of global events, or are able to take policy actions when receiving inflows to mitigate the impact of a subsequent reversal. Our analysis suggests that, while changes in global conditions have an important bearing on crisis susceptibility, countries that allow the buildup of macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities during boom times, and which receive mostly debt flows, are significantly more likely to see capital inflow surge episodes end in a financial crisis.