Bank Credits,Foreign Exchange Reserves and Real Exchange Rates:Theoretical and Empirical Study Based on China's Reality
基于货币供给分解和总供需均衡，建立人民币真实汇率模型，发现真实汇率与名义汇率、贷款利率、外汇储备等存在长期协整关系，并以14.07%的速度向均衡收敛。
This paper establishes the model of RMB real exchange rate according to the decomposition of money supply,the optimization of credit supply,and the aggregate demand and aggregate supply equilibrium.The empirical research reveals that there exists a long- term cointegration relationship among the real exchange rate and the nominal exchange rate,loan interest rates,foreign exchange reserves,the labor productivity and United States price index,and the error correction model shows the real exchange rate will converge at 14.07%speed to the equilibrium after the shock.Finally the paper introduces the foreign exchange market pressure index to examine RMB real exchange rate movement,and shows there is a significant negative impact on the real exchange rate.