ANALYSES ON MARKET COMPETITION STATE OF CHINESE INBOUND TOURISM IN NEW CENTURY
提出一个基于市场占有率和增长率的旅游市场竞争状态数学模型，将区域旅游市场分为明星、金牛、幼童和瘦狗四类，并以此定量划分了上世纪末中国入境旅游的客源市场和目的地市场，为制定新世纪市场开拓策略提供依据。
In market economy system, the establishment of regional tourism developing strategy must be based on the exact market analysis and grasp. In this paper, according to the two indexes combination of market occupancy rate and growth rate, a mathematical model of tourism market competition state is put forward, using this model, a regional tourism markets is compartmentalized into four types, such as bright star market, cash-cow market, infant market and thin-dog market. This model provided a new method for analyzing the regional tourism market in the drawing of regional tourism developing strategy. As an example of the study, the paper partitions customer recourses markets and objective markets of China inbound tourism in the end of last century in quantity, the result shows: the customer recourses markets focus on three regions, which are west of Europe, north of America, southeast of Asia. In the intercontinental markets, Russia and America are the first grade, England, Germany, Canada and Australia are the second, Italy, Holland, New Zealand and Spain are the third. In the inner-continent markets, Japan and Korea are the first one, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Mongolia are the second, and the third are Thailand, Indonesia, India and Vietnam. In china, the inbound tourism development of each province is unbalance, the eastern is high and the western is low, the inbound tourists are mainly distributed at 12 hot provinces. In the eastern region, Guangdong is the first grade, Beijing, Shanghai Fujian and Jiangsu are the second, Zhejiang, Shandong and Liaoning are the third. In the middle part district, Guangxi is the first grade, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Hunan and Inner Mongolia are the second. In the western region, Yunnan and Shaanxi are the first grade, Szechwan and Chongqing are the second one. With analyzing the status of each markets, the research provides the new according for market exploit strategy of China inbound tourism in the beginning of new century. The partition of tourism market competition state is comparatively, and it is dynamic in time and space, this work is only a principium exploration and there is some questions await research going to deep.