REAL EXCHANGE RATE,IMPORT & EXPORT AND URBAN-RURAL INCOME GAP:A DYNAMIC EMPIRICAL STUDY BASED ON STRUCTURAL VAR MODEL
基于SVAR模型研究实际汇率、贸易依存度与城乡收入差距的动态关系，发现实际汇率显著影响贸易依存度和收入差距，且冲击效应呈W型和M型模式。
A prominent problem in China's economic and social development is the continuous widening of urban-rural income gap. In addition to making value judgments, more importantly, we should figure out the causes of this gap. This article discusses the latent relationship among real exchange rate, trade dependence and the urban-rural income gap based on the SVAR model. The results show:①The real exchange rate in the 5% level of significance is the significant factor that could affect the trade dependence ratio and changes in the urban-rural income gap.②The impulse of real exchange rate in one or two years could explain about 50% changes in the trade openness. The accumulated negative responses can be transformed into positive ones in a long run. ③ The multiple graphs of impulse of the urban-rural income gap to the trade openness will be W-type. The cumulative effects would exacerbate the urban-rural income gap.④The multiple graphs of impulse of the real exchange to the urban-rural income gap will be M-type. Although, the real exchange rate can only explain 8% of the changes in the income gap, the cumulative transfer rate will continue to rise from the seventh quarter.