USING SLEUTH MODEL TO SIMULATE AND ASSESS FUTURE SCENARIOS OF URBAN EXPANSION
以杭州为例，使用SLEUTH模型基于历史数据模拟三种未来城市扩张情景，评估其对人口增长、耕地减少和城市规划的影响，帮助规划者应对不确定性。
Simulation and assessment of urban expansion can help to deal with uncertainty in urban planning in the rapid urbanization process. Taking Hangzhou as a case study, this paper used SLEUTH model to simulate historic urban expansion based on Landsat TM/ETM+ images, and to predict three future scenarios including Maintain Status Quo, Moderate Farmland Protection and Compact City. To improve the interface between models and users in planning, this paper assessed the impacts of three scenarios of urban expansion on population growth, decrease of cultivated land and urban planning. The results indicated that MSQ scenario would be featured with dispersed urban pattern and rapid decrease of cultivated land, MFP scenario would prevent cultivated land from urban encroachment to a certain degree, and CC scenario would restrict low-density urban development on the fringe of subcenters by urban growth boundary. However, SLEUTH model may be improved for simulating the impacts of incentive factors, such as road planning, priority developing areas or population distribution.