Anticipated Banking Panics
构建了一个包含银行不稳定的宏观经济模型，研究太阳黑子挤兑如何由基本面决定，并解释了大衰退中从慢速挤兑到快速挤兑的演变过程。
We develop a macroeconomic model with banking instability. Sunspot runs can arise that are harmful to the economy. However, whether a run equilibrium exists depends on fundamentals. In contrast to earlier work, the probability of a sunspot run is the outcome of rational forecast based on fundamentals. The model captures the movement from slow to fast runs that was a feature of the Great Recession: A weakening of banks' balance sheets increases the probability of a run, leading depositors to withdraw funds from banks. These slow runs have harmful effects on the economy and set the stage for fast runs.