Driven Analysis and Trend Forecasting Changes in Grain Production in Gansu Province
以甘肃省为研究区，基于1949-2011年社会经济统计数据，分析粮食生产动态变化及影响因素，并利用GM(1,1)模型预测2012-2021年粮食产量，为相关部门提供科学依据。
In this paper,select the major grain-producing province of the northwest China-Gansu province as the study area.It explores the impacts that affect the regional grain production,by choosing socio-economic statistics from 1949 to 2011,based on quantitative and qualitative analysis to the grain dynamic changes in 63 years.After that,GM(1,1) prediction model was established depend on the data about grain production of Gansu province in the past 34 years.Then the paper carried out the simulation and prediction in medium and long-term on food production of Gansu province in the next ten years(2012-2021).The results provide a scientific basis for relevant grain production departments of Gansu province.The research show that,(1) From 1949 to 2011,the characteristics of the dynamic change about the grain production in Gansu province mainly performance in three aspects.Firstly,it displayed a significantly fluctuated growth in grain production but the fluctuations in grain production in recent years has slowed down;secondly,the curve line of total grain production,the changing trends of per capita food production and grain yield per unit area are basically alike;Finally,there was typical oscillation such as 38a,23a and 15a in grain production variation in Gansu Province on a time scale of 63 years since the founding of our motherland,particularly,the 38a and 23a oscillation dominated.(2)Four major components of the impacts on food production are socio-economic development level,such as the total power of agricultural machinery and effective irrigated area.(3) Grain production will keep the sound development momentum from 2012 to 2021 through the forecasting results.