Comparisons and Integration of Contemporary Researches on Urbanization Models
综述中国城市化研究,指出多数模型静态且缺乏机制研究,提出整合经济学与基于主体的建模(ABM)的新方法,对研究城市化机制和政策评估有用。
Surveying the whole researches on urbanization in China,most of them pay attention to drawing experiences from the developed countries.The qualitative description,quantitative measurement,empirical data forecasting and analysis for urbanization are very rich,while the basic theoretical researches are relatively rare.Most of the models are static,which are lack of dynamic evolution.Especially,the mathematic models on mechanism research are seldom seen.Besides,the analytical methods are lacking in innovation.This paper firstly reviews urbanization models from both the development and special economics perspectives,secondly analyzes the urbanization researches from agent-based modeling(ABM),than points out the research methods of urbanization mechanisms need to be innovated and integrated.A breakthrough attempt is to integrate the economic research results and the dynamic advantage of ABM in two ways: the broad sense integration based on new classical urbanization theories and the narrow sense integration based on new economic geography.One path worth exploring is: a deductive economic model→the ABM calculation and experiment→the empirical analysis and measuring inspection→public policy evaluation.