Confidence, Animal Spirits and Economic Fluctuation in China
研究消费者信心和企业家信心对中国经济波动的影响，发现企业家信心能引起经济波动，且其中的动物精神部分对GDP、CPI和利率有显著影响。
The paper mainly studies whether the confidence has effect on economic fluctuation in China? First- ly , by using Granger casualty test and linear regression, it is found that consumer confidence cannot but entre- preneur confidence can cause economic fluctuation. Secondly, the authors decompose entrepreneur confidence into fundamental sentiment and animal spirits and thus find that GDP, CPI, interest rate and stock market index affect fundamental sentiment significantly. In addition, animal spirits do have a significant impact on GDP, CPI and interest rate, which are in line with the characters of aggregate demand shocks.