Winter Is Coming: Robert Gordon and the Future of Economic Growth
评论《美国增长的兴衰》中关于美国全要素生产率增长将持续低迷的论断，指出制造业份额下降等因素可能使戈登的预测过于乐观。
This comment assesses the claim of The Rise and Fall of American Growth that for coming decades, growth in US TFP will continue the disappointing pace of the last decade. While predicting future technological advance is difficult, there are indications that Gordon may actually be too optimistic on future TFP growth. The share of output from manufacturing, which still generates the majority of R&D expenditures, and has historically more rapid TFP growth, will continue to fall. There are substantial obstacles to rapid TFP advance in much of the rest of the economy: construction, transport, health care and other services.