A STUDY ON THE CHANGE AND TREND OF THE LAND USE IN THE FAST URBANIZATION AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREA IN CHINA——A CASE OF JINJIANG CITY
以晋江市为例，利用GIS和马尔可夫模型分析1990年代以来快速城市化地区的土地利用变化，发现耕地向建设用地转移是主要特征，并预测未来建设用地将占主导。
Since the 1990s,the urbanization of Jinjiang city has developed rapidly and the land use changed dramatically under the influence of open and reform policies.Jinjiang city has been a typical representative of the fast urbanized area of coastal area in south-eastern China.It is meaningful to study the land use change and perform the dynamic simulation of Jinjiang city,so that we can discover the tendency of the land use change in the southeastern coastal of China. With the aid of GIS spatial analysis tool,it constitutes a series of Tupu models,which cover the spatio-temporally compound patterns of land use.Then the evolution tendency of land use in the future is simulated and predicted with Markov model in the study area.The results show that the shifting of cultivated land to constructive land is the remarkable feature of the land use change and the spatial pattern is obvious.This paper also draws a conclusion that the constructive land will predominate Jinjiang city in the future by Marcov model.According to the characteristics of land use configuration in Jinjiang,a case of south-eastern China,the article presents some countermeasure.