PREDICTING METHODS OF ARABLE LAND DEMAND AND THEIR APPLICATION IN COUNTY'S GENERAL LAND USE PLANNING
基于中国南方某县1996-2005年数据，比较趋势分析、回归分析、指数平滑、灰色模型和灰色马尔可夫链五种方法预测耕地需求的效果，发现灰色马尔可夫链更可靠有效，适合县级土地利用总体规划。
Scientifically and accurately predicting arable land demand is the base of making general land-use planning.In this paper,based on the field survey and statistic data of land changes in a county of the southern China during 1996-2005,the gross arable land in this region was simulated and predicted using trend analysis method,regression analysis method,exponent smoothing method,Grey Model GM(1,1) and Grey-Markov Chain theory,respectively.The results of different methods indicate that the Grey-Markov Chain Method is more reliable and effective for policy makers of land management.In consideration of the current land-use mode,the Grey-Markov Chain Method is preferable for predicting arable land demand of county's general land-use planning.