Greek Debt Sustainability and Official Crisis Lending
研究了国际货币基金组织和欧洲稳定机制在希腊债务危机中的贷款政策，指出标准债务可持续性模型不适用于希腊，因为其债务高度优惠，未来流动性问题可能在2035年后出现。
The International Monetary Fund and the European Stability Mechanism softened their crisis lending policies repeatedly to deal with the Greek debt crisis, but the analysis of debt sustainability still acts as the gatekeeper for access to official financing. We explore the underlying mechanics of debt sustainability analysis and show that the standard model is inappropriate for Greece since it ignores the highly concessional terms of Greek debt. Greek debt has been restructured repeatedly, and now two-thirds of the stock contains grant elements of about 54 percent. The present value of outstanding Greek debt is currently about 100 percent of GDP and will rise to about 120 percent under the new program. Greek debt sustainability therefore is less a problem of the debt stock. By simulating different paths of the gross financing needs, we show that there may be liquidity problems over the medium to long terms (in particular, in 2035 and beyond). However, our estimation of the financing need is subject to high uncertainty and mainly depends on whether Greece will be able to regain access to markets at reasonable terms.