The Theoretical and Empirical Study of the Incomplete Pass—through of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation
分析了人民币汇率波动与国内CPI的关系，发现汇率传递效应不完全且呈下降趋势，通货膨胀是主要影响因素，汇率变动与传递效应负相关。
This paper analyses the relationship between RMB exchange rate fluctuation and CPI domestic pries index.Secondly,the authors analyze the variation trend of RMB exchange rate pass-through effect.Finally,the factors effecting RMB exchange rate pass-through effect are discussed.It is found that RMB exchange rate passthrough is incomplete by using both OLS model and ADSL model and,in general RMB exchange rate passthrough effect is on declining trend.This conclusion is consistent with the overseas relating documents about the exchange rate pass-through of the developed countries.Inflation,variation of exchange rate and real GDP are all dramatically influencing RMB exchange rate pass-through effect,inflation is the dominating factor of the three, and there is positive correlation between inflation and exchange rate pass-through effect.Besides,variation of exchange rate and exchange rate pass-through effect are reversely correlated,which is contrary to overseas relating documents.Finally,there is reverse correlation between real GDP and exchange rate pass-through effect, which indicates that distribution cost has decreased exchange rate pass-through effect,and the distribution cost will have a more and more important role in explaining the declining exchange rate pass-through effect as Balassa -Samuelson effect and labor cost increasing.At the end of the paper,some apocalypses on the basis of the motioned conclusions are proposed.