The Influence of Level and Volatility of RMB's Real Exchange Rate on Bilateral Trade: the Empirical Study of China - USA and China - Japan Trade
基于标准实证模型，研究了人民币实际汇率水平与波动对中美和中日双边贸易的影响，发现全球金融危机下人民币升值放缓与汇率形成机制改革难以抵消负面冲击。
The impact of the current global financial crisis on China has been shown as the latest data reveal that both exports and imports have suffered the largest decline since the 90's, while RMB exchange rate is facing great uncertainty and volatility as well. For years, American has been China's No 1 exporting partner and Japan has been China's No 1 importing partner. Based on the standard empirical model of exchange rate volatility effect on international trade, this paper builds the models of the bilateral trade of China-US and China-Japan to find laws to respond to the crisis. Empirical study shows that facing the spread of the global financial crisis and volatile international environment, the slowdown of the RMB appreciation and the reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism might not offset this negative impact. We must exercise great effort on expanding domes- tic demand, readjusting the structure, to ensure China's economic development.