A Quantitative Research on the Relationship among Onshore Spot Exchange Rate,Offshore Spot Exchange Rate and Offshore NDF Rate
定量研究在岸人民币即期汇率、离岸人民币即期汇率与离岸无本金交割远期汇率之间的关系，发现在岸市场主导定价，NDF价格具有前瞻性，对央行完善汇率机制有参考价值。
This paper systematically summaries the linkages among the CNY,CNH and NDF market,and innovatively uses quantitative method to test the relationship within the three markets.The results indicate that; first,CNY markets guide the price in CNH markets,so CNY markets still dominant the pricing of RMB;secondly, NDF prices are forward-looking indicators for CNY markets and CNH markets,and the central parity of RMB has been integrating more market factors.Based on the results above,we suggest that the central bank should further exert the price discovery role of the CNH markets,and moreover,during the improvement in the RMB exchange rate regime,should focus more on market factors,enhance the exchange rate flexibility with the reference to a basket of currencies.