Measurement of China's Core Inflation and the Implication to Monetary Policy
基于VAR模型将CPI分解为长期趋势和短期波动，定义长期成分为核心通胀，发现其主导CPI长期趋势并能改善预测，对央行制定货币政策有参考价值。
Based on the VAR model including real output,real money supply M2 and CPI,the CPI is decomposed as the long run common trend and short run stationary part.The long run component is defined as the core inflation.Empirical analyses based on the seasonal unadjusted quarterly data from 1994 to 2009 indicate that there is cointegration between the core inflation and CPI,the core inflation dominate the long run trend and is Granger cause of CPI.In addition,the core inflation can improve the prediction of CPI.Therefore the core inflation is useful for the central bank to make monetary policy.