The Regional Gravity Evolution of Consumption, Economy and Population Based on the Multiple Time Scales in China
通过分析1952-2011年中国消费、GDP和人口的重心转移轨迹，结合回归分析和EMD方法，从多时间尺度揭示了消费重心在经纬度上的演化规律及其与经济、人口的互动关系。
Regional consumption is the important driving force of the development of the economy. By analyzing the transfer routine of consumption and GDP, population through the calculation of gravity centre between 1952 and 2011 in China, combing the traditional regression analysis and EMD methods, this paper explores the interaction relations of gravity evolution among them from multi-time scales perspective in the 60 years. The results shows that the evolution of consumption gravity center evolution respectively presents different time scales in latitude and longitude. In latitude, the consumption gravity evolution is mainly composed of 30 years scale and trend, and has a trend to move northwards in future; In longitude, the consumption gravity evolution is mainly composed of 8.5 years short-scale and trend, and has a trend to move eastwards in short-time scale. there exsits obvious correlation and different time-scale interactions between regional consumption and economy, population. In latitude, from shorter time scale, economic development basically drives the development of consumption, from long time scale, they present mutual promotion and influence each other. While, from short-medium time scale, the population changing is not significant to raise the level of consumption, in the long run, it plays an active role. In longitude, from shorter time scale, the development of economy and population increase will promote the improvement of the level of consumption, from medium time scale, economic development and consumption show interactive restriction relation, from long time scale, population change will not improve the level of consumption. Finally, we put forward some suggestions to promote regional consumption level