SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF URBAN SPATIAL GROWTH IN THE PAST 20 YEARS IN JING-JIN-LANG AREA
基于卫星影像历史数据，校准SLEUTH模型后模拟了1985-2008年京津冀城市扩张，并预测2009-2020年趋势，发现边缘增长为主、交通影响显著，并分析了自然、政策、交通等驱动力。
Based on the historical data that are extracted from a time series of satellite images,SLEUTH has been employed to simulate the urban growth and land use evolution in Jing-Jin-Lang area.To make SLEUTH applicable to Jing-Jin-Lang area,a number of calibrations should be done for the model.After calibrations,SLEUTH is used for backcasting of urban extent and land use/cover change with spatiotemporal interpolation during 1985 to 2008.The simulated results are analyzed with historical data.On this basis,SLEUTH used as a forecasting tool to simulate the process of LUCC during 2009 to 2020 respectively.Using SLEUTH model,urban growth tendency in future was forecasted.The results indicated that,margin growth occupied dominant station relative to other growth method.In future,it was going to grow outward continually taking old urban area as the center all the same.At the same time,it was traffic system nowadays that was going to have an important influence to urban development in Jing-Jin-Lang area.At last,through using qualitative and quantitative method,urban expansion driving factors were discussed.Natural environment,national macroscopic policy regulation,traffic,development zone construction and special factors were important to urban growth in Jing-Jin-Lang area.The principal component analysis showed that,population-culture-economy factor and economy factor and economy-environment factor was respectively the first principal component to influence urban growth in Beijing and Tianjin and Langfang.