Real-time Analysis of Taylor Rule and Its Applicability in the Chinese Monetary Policy
基于中国季度产出缺口，用六种去趋势方法估计前瞻性、同期和滞后性泰勒规则，发现前瞻性规则能稳定经济，且去趋势方法选择对实时分析影响显著。
From the perspective of real time data,this paper re-examine the Chinese monetary policy reaction function and the applicability of Taylor rule in China.Based on the China's quarterly output gap derived from six detrending methods,the authors estimate backward-looking,contemporary and forward-looking Taylor rule with real time data and final data respectively,analyze the effect of different detrending methods in estimating monetary policy reaction function,and further discuss the discrepancy between the real-time and final-data Taylor rule.The results show that the forward-looking Taylor rule,which can stabilize China's economy,can be used as a reference scale for China's monetary policy,but the backward-looking and contemporary Taylor rule are unstable.More importantly,it is found that the choice of detrending method has a great influence on the real time analysis,and the real time data estimation based on Clack(1987) model and quadratic trend filter is consistent with final data estimation,whereas the divergence for other methods,such as HP filter,are significant.