Demography Dynamics and Housing Demand in China:1999~2025—Evidence from Census Data
利用人口普查数据，研究发现婴儿潮推高中国房价，住房需求在20-50岁随年龄增长而上升，之后因队列效应下降；基于人口结构变化预测2012年后住房需求增速将显著放缓。
This paper investigates the relationship between demographic change and housing demand using the census data.The time series data suggests thatbaby boomplays an important role in the rapidly increasing housing price occurred in China recently.Based on household level data,we find that housing demand is highly related to age.Housing demand increases sharply from 20 to 50 years old after which it begins to decline gradually. These empirical findings are robust to measurement error,sample selection bias and house ownership. Further study shows thatcohort effectcontributes to the falling housing demand after one's 50 years old. Based upon changes in population structure,we estimate the aggregated housing demand in China from 1999 to 2025 and find that the growth rate of housing demand fits the housing price well since 2004.At the same time, we expect that the growth rate of housing demand will drop significantly in 2012 due to demographic change.