Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary?
扩展了蒙代尔-弗莱明模型，将资产分为债券和非债券，发现资本流入可能降低非债券利率，刺激金融中介和产出，从而解释新兴市场政策制定者认为资本流入导致信贷繁荣和产出增长的现象。
The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers, however, believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output; the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, stimulating financial intermediation and, potentially, output as well. We explore the implications, and find support for the key predictions in the data.