THE IMPACT OF BIO-FUEL'S DEVELOPMENT ON THE PATTERNS OF WORLD ENERGY GEO-POLITICS
研究了生物燃料生产集中在美国、巴西和欧盟的现状，分析了其对传统能源地缘政治的有限影响，并预测了未来纤维素乙醇可能带来的深远变化。
The world bio-fuels productions are mainly located in U.S.A,Brazil and EU.About 90 percent of production is concentrated in these countries.But the raw materials of ethanol are totally deferent.The U.S.A is corn-based ethanol,Brazil is sugarcane-based ethanol and EU is biodiesel based on rapeseed.The bio-fuels now is in the early stage of development,and its impacts on traditional energy geo-politics are very limited.If the low-cost raw materials are available in the near future,cellulosic ethanol will replace the first-generation bio-fuels,and with the increase of bio-fuels production,the impacts of bio-fuels on energy geo-politics will be deeper and wider.The competitiveness between Bio-fuels OPECand OPEC will be more series.The bio-fuels development results from OPEC and the non-OPEC developing countries face great challenges.The developed countries utilize their advantages both in bio-fuels technologies and in the grain market,on one hand they could reduce the oil dependence on OPEC,on the other hand they could rise grain price,increase the income of their grain export.The bio-fuels development also has an important utilization is decrease the emission of CO2.The negotiations about post-Kyoto climate framework will start soon.The developed countries most probably use their advantages in the field of bio-fuels and make press on developing countries.