The Study of the Nature of Expectations of RMB Exchange Rate under the Condition of Disequilibrium
针对人民币汇率改革中的升值惯性问题，基于中国外汇市场现实，构建了适应性预期下的非抛补利率平价模型，实证发现人民币汇率具有向后看的适应性预期特征，对汇率管理政策有参考价值。
The appreciation inertia is considered as the trickiest issue in the exchange rate reform process. Therefore, eliminating the appreciation inertia is closely related to the success of the reform of foreign exchange rate. Based on the reality of Chinese foreign exchange market, this paper builds the model of non-covered inter- est rate parity under adaptive expectations after analyzing the nature of expectations of RMB exchange-rate on the condition of disequilibrium. As the empirical test indicates, the RMB exchange rate has the character of loo- king-backwards adaptive expectations. This conclusion imposes meaningful effects on the policy-making of RMB exchange-rate management