Using a Free Permit Rule to Forecast the Marginal Abatement Cost of Proposed Climate Policy
利用未实施的Waxman-Markey法案的三个特征，通过回归不连续设计比较企业股票回报，并结合预测市场价格，预测了气候政策的边际减排成本，得出每吨二氧化碳当量5至19美元的范围。
This paper develops a method for forecasting the marginal abatement cost (MAC) of climate policy using three features of the failed Waxman-Markey bill. First, the MAC is revealed by the price of traded permits. Second, the permit price is estimated using a regression discontinuity design (RDD) comparing stock returns of firms on either side of the policy's free permit cutoff rule. Third, because Waxman-Markey was never implemented, I extend the RDD approach to incorporate prediction market prices which normalize estimates by policy realization probabilities. A final bounding analysis recovers a MAC range of $5 to $19 per ton CO 2 e.