Fiscal Forecasts at the FOMC: Evidence from the Greenbooks
研究了美联储为联邦公开市场委员会准备的财政预测，发现这些预测比国会预算局的预测更有用，且部分财政变量能解释联邦基金利率目标的外生变化。
Abstract This paper examines fiscal policy forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee and its influence on U.S. monetary policy. The forecasts contain useful information beyond that in the CBO’s forecasts. Fiscal forecast errors are only weakly correlated with forecast errors for inflation and output growth, but those for the budget surplus are highly correlated with those for the unemployment rate and the output gap. Some fiscal variables can also account for a significant fraction of the “exogenous” changes in the federal funds rate target that Romer and Romer (2004) studied, consistent with the board’s statements on the importance of fiscal policy.