Conditional Retrospective Voting in Large Elections
提出一种回溯投票均衡概念，模型化选民基于过去表现评价候选人的行为，并分析因反事实结果不可观测导致的信念偏差，为理解大规模选举中的选民行为提供新视角。
We introduce a solution concept in the context of large elections with private information by embedding a model of boundedly rational voters into an otherwise standard equilibrium setting. A retrospective voting equilibrium (RVE) formalizes the idea that voters evaluate alternatives based on past performance. Since counterfactual outcomes are not observed, the sample from which voters learn is potentially biased, leading to systematically biased beliefs in equilibrium. We provide an explicit learning foundation for RVE and contrast it to standard solution concepts in the literature.