Technological Innovations, Downside Risk, and the Modernization of Agriculture
通过在印度的随机实验，发现耐涝水稻品种通过降低下行风险，促进了现代投入和种植方式的采用，从而提高了农业生产力。
We use a randomized experiment in India to show that improved technology enhances agricultural productivity by crowding in modern inputs and cultivation practices. Specifically, we show that a new rice variety that reduces downside risk by providing flood tolerance has positive effects on adoption of a more labor-intensive planting method, area cultivated, fertilizer usage, and credit utilization. We find that a large share of the expected gains from the technology comes from crowding in of other investments. Therefore, improved technologies that reduce risk by protecting production in bad years have the potential to increase agricultural productivity in normal years.