When It Pays to Wait: Optimizing Release Timing Decisions for Secondary Channels in the Film Industry
研究通过联合建模影院票房和DVD销售，发现延长影院到DVD的发行间隔能提升总收益，且此前研究低估了最优间隔；模型预测平均每部电影距最优间隔约8周，优化后总收入和DVD收入可分别提升2.5%和5.6%。
This study examines the optimization of interrelease timing decisions, focusing on box office and DVD sales in the U.S. motion picture industry. It aims to improve managerial decision making by jointly modeling the revenue in these two channels through a copula modeling approach. As in previous studies, the authors find that the time lag from box office release to DVD release should be increased to optimize total movie performance, but they conclude that previous studies have systematically underestimated the optimal time lag. This study is the first to challenge the assumption of a negative decay in DVD performance as a function of time; its results suggest that a delayed DVD release is still optimal for maximizing revenue in the DVD channel. This study's model suggests that, on average, individual movies are approximately eight weeks away from their optimal lag and that the net impact of optimizing would be improvements in total and DVD revenue by 2.5% and 5.6%, respectively. Therefore, this model is expected to enhance managerial decision making by offering the ability to predict the optimal time lag for individual movies.