Did the Euro Common Currency Increase or Decrease Business Cycle Synchronization for its Member Countries?
使用马尔可夫转换模型评估欧元创建后八个成员国产出同步性的变化，发现仅荷兰同步性增强，三个国家反而下降，表明最优货币区标准的内生性可能双向作用。
We use two variants of Markov switching models to assess changes in output synchronization since the creation of the euro. Out of eight eurozone countries investigated, only one—the Netherlands—has synchronization increased since euro adoption, supporting the ‘endogenous optimal currency area’ argument of Frankel and Rose. However, in three other cases, business cycle synchronization actually fell since the euro's creation. Thus the ‘endogeneity’ of the optimal currency area criteria can go both ways—adopting a common currency may increase synchronization for nations ready for a common currency, but it can lower synchronization for nations that are far from synchronized before monetary unification.