Sentiments in SVARs
在结构VAR框架下,利用不同频率的约束识别情绪冲击,发现其对美国经济波动解释力很小,主要体现为信心的特有成分。
This article investigates the contribution of sentiment shocks to US fluctuations in a Structural VAR setup with restrictions at various frequencies. Sentiments shocks are identified as shocks orthogonal to fundamentals that account for most of the variance of confidence. We obtain that, contrary to news shocks on total factor productivity, sentiment shocks explain little of quantities and prices. Sentiments shocks mostly appear as an idiosyncratic component of confidence. These results are robust to various perturbations.