Temporary Shocks and Persistent Effects in Urban Economies: Evidence from British Cities after the U.S. Civil War
研究了美国内战期间对英国棉花纺织业的暂时冲击如何长期影响城市人口，发现冲击暂时降低了棉花纺织专业城市的增长率，并导致人口水平的持续变化。
Can a temporary economic shock to an important local industry influence long-run city population? To answer this question I study the large temporary shock to British cities caused by the U.S. CivilWar (1861–1865), which reduced cotton supplies to Britain’s important cotton textile industry. I show that this event temporarily reduced the growth rate of cities specializing in cotton textile production, relative to other English cities, and led to a persistent change in the level of city population.