Political Party Affiliation of the President, Majority in Congress, and Sin Stock Returns
研究发现,与整体股市在民主党总统时期表现更好相反,烟草、酒类和博彩等“罪恶股票”在共和党总统时期表现更佳,且当共和党同时控制国会至少一院时回报更高。文章还发现罪恶公司向共和党候选人提供更多政治献金,且献金与未来回报正相关。
We find that in contrast to the stock market, which performs better during Democratic presidencies, “sin” stocks—publicly traded producers of tobacco, alcohol, and gaming—perform better during Republican presidencies and even more so when the Republican presidency is accompanied by a Republican majority in at least one chamber of Congress. We examine whether sin firms use contributions to establish connections with politicians and find that sin firms contribute more to Republican candidates and that these contributions are greater when Republicans are in power. We also find a positive relation between political contributions and future returns. The relation is stronger for contributions to Republicans.