Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy
评估了前瞻性模型在小型开放经济中解释通胀动态的表现，发现精确模型与挪威数据不符且存在识别问题，而一个基于不完全竞争的后顾性模型在样本内表现更优，预测能力也略好。
Abstract We evaluate the empirical performance of forward‐looking models for inflation dynamics in a small open economy. Using likelihood‐based testing procedures, we find that the exact formulation is at odds with Norwegian data. Moreover, some of the parameters in the model are not well identified. We also find that the inexact formulation is not rejected statistically using a test based on a minimum distance method. However, confidence regions also reveal an identification problem with this model. Instead, we find a well‐specified backward‐looking model with imperfect competition underlying the price setting, which is a model that outperforms an alternative forward‐looking model in‐sample. The backward‐looking model also forecasts somewhat better than the alternative forward‐looking model, during and after the recent financial crisis.