Heterogeneous Behavior, Obesity, and Storability in the Demand for Soft Drinks
通过动态估计模型研究肥胖对软饮料需求的影响，发现肥胖率高的地区消费者对促销更敏感、对价格更不敏感，导致提价政策效果减弱。
We apply a dynamic estimation procedure to investigate the effect of obesity on the demand for soda. The dynamic model accounts for consumers’ storing behavior, and allows us to study soda consumers’ price sensitivity (how responsive consumers are to the overall price) and sale sensitivity (the fraction of consumers that store soda during temporary price reductions). By matching store‐level purchase data to county‐level data on obesity incidence, we find higher sale sensitivity in populations with higher obesity rates. Conversely, we find that storers are less price sensitive than non‐storers , and that their price sensitivity decreases with the obesity rate. Our results suggest that policies aimed at increasing soda prices might be less effective than previously thought, especially in areas where consumers can counteract that price increase by stockpiling during sale periods; according to our results, this dampening effect would be more pronounced precisely in those areas with higher obesity rates.