Independent Trials are a Model for Disaster
研究发现体育赛事中的重大失利（灾难）与一系列备份失败有关，提出一个模型：一次失败会使下一次失败的概率按固定倍数增加，该模型很好地拟合了1987年温网和美网数据，且相比独立试验模型，灾难概率更高。
SUMMARY A connection is made between heavy defeats, or disasters, in sport and the failure of a series of backups leading to a disaster in the wider context. The relationship between ranks, ratings and odds for the elite players in a sport is examined. A model which states that 'failure on a trial increases the odds for a failure on the next trial by a constant factor' provides an excellent fit to data from the 1987 Wimbledon and US Open tennis tournaments. There is an increase in the probability of disaster relative to an independent trials model, which is most dramatic for low initial failure rates.