Prediction of Financial Vulnerability to Funding Instability
用风险分析方法研究非营利组织因政府资金不稳定而倒闭的速度，发现风险率与风险时间呈倒U型曲线关系。
Financial vulnerability of nonprofit organizations arising from governmental funding instability is examined using hazard analysis. Funding instability is characterized by time-at-risk, and vulnerability is expressed by hazard rate measuring the speed of nonprofit organizations closure. The analysis provides estimation of instantaneous probability of a nonprofit organization failure at a given point in time. Drawing on 2,660 Israeli nonprofit organizations, we found that the relationship between hazard rate and time-at-risk has an inverted U–shape curve; hazard rate increases with time-at-risk, reaches a maximum then descends.