Exporter Dynamics and Partial-Year Effects
研究发现，出口商在不同月份开始出口会导致第一年出口数据严重偏差，例如秘鲁出口商第一年出口水平被低估54%，增长率被高估112个百分点，修正后净进入和退出企业对出口增长的贡献几乎翻倍。
Two identical firms who start exporting in different months, one each in January and December, will report dramatically different exports for the first calendar year. This partial-year effect biases down first-year export levels and biases up first-year export growth rates. For Peruvian exporters, the partial-year bias is large: first-year export levels are understated by 54 percent and the first-year growth rate is overstated by 112 percentage points. Correcting the partial-year effect dramatically reduces first-year export growth rates, raises initial export levels, and almost doubles the contribution of net firm entry and exit to overall export growth.