EXTREME EVENTS AND OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY
基于包含极端冲击的新凯恩斯模型，研究央行如何通过非线性、非对称的货币政策应对极端事件，结论是严格的价格稳定优于为防范极端冲击而容忍通胀。
Abstract This article studies the implication of extreme shocks for monetary policy. The analysis is based on a small‐scale New Keynesian model with sticky prices and wages where shocks are drawn from asymmetric generalized extreme value distributions. A nonlinear perturbation solution of the model is estimated by the simulated method of moments. Under the Ramsey policy, the central bank responds nonlinearly and asymmetrically to shocks. The trade‐off between targeting a gross inflation rate above 1 as insurance against extreme shocks and targeting an average gross inflation at unity to avoid adjustment costs is unambiguously decided in favor of strict price stability.