Do subsidized new firms survive longer? Evidence from a counterfactual approach
利用意大利区域政策L. 488/1992的补贴数据，通过断点回归设计评估资本补贴对新创企业存活率的影响，发现补贴降低了企业违约风险，反驳了补贴仅延迟退出的观点。
Do subsidized new firms survive longer? Evidence from a counterfactual approach. Regional Studies. This study provides a statistically robust evaluation of the impact of capital subsidies on the survival of start-ups in Italy. The analysis considers the subsidies provided by the main Italian regional policy, Law 488/1992, during 1996–2009. By exploiting an unusual characteristic of the L. 488 selection process, a quasi-experimental design with high internal validity – the regression discontinuity design – is applied for the first time to the survival analysis. The results show a lower default risk in subsidized start-ups. These findings contradict the view that start-ups receiving L. 488 assistance simply used the grant funding to delay exit.