The Local Impacts of Agricultural Subsidies: Evidence from the Canadian Prairies
利用1995年加拿大取消出口补贴的改革，估计了补贴损失对草原省份地方经济的影响，发现补贴取消显著降低了农业增加值、农业资产价值和非农就业，且对非农就业的溢出效应是传统乘数估计的五倍。
Abstract We estimate the impact of removing an export subsidy on the local economies of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, exploiting the large regional variation of a 1995 reform. We find that the loss of the subsidy resulted in significantly lower farm value‐added, farm asset values and local non‐farm employment. The results suggest that the subsidy removal had detrimental spillover effects on the local non‐agricultural economy that varied spatially across the Prairies. The point estimates suggest that the marginal effect of the subsidy loss on non‐agricultural employment was five times as large as those obtained from traditional estimates of the multiplier effect.