An Extreme-Value Model for Predicting the Results of Horse Races
分析了1979-80年赛马结果，用极值分布建模赛马时间，预测各组胜率，发现模型与数据尾部一致，可用于预测胜率。
SUMMARY Results of horse races in 1979-80 are analysed to see if the extreme-value distribution can model the times to run horse races: horses with the same bookmakers' odds of winning are classed as one group; the distribution of times for each group is extreme-value with location parameter , depending on the win odds; and the scale parameter 0 is common to all groups. The model predicts that the win probability p for the group is p = exp ((go -,B)/0) for some constant gIo, and this is borne out by the data. Only the tail of the empirical distribution functions is consistent with the model; however, it is essentially this tail which determines the win probabilities, so if the aim is to do just that the model will serve a useful purpose.