Modelling lifetime dependence for older ages using a multivariate Pareto distribution
研究了一种多元帕累托分布，用于捕捉老年死亡率中的依赖结构，帮助更准确地定价和管理标准年金及联合生命年金产品的长寿风险。
The main driver of longevity risk is uncertainty in old-age mortality, especially surrounding potential dependence structures. We investigate a multivariate Pareto distribution that allows for the exploration of a variety of applications, from portfolios of standard annuities to joint-life annuity products for couples. Given the anticipated continued increase of supercentenarians, the heavy-tailed nature of the Pareto distribution is appropriate for this application. In past work, it has been shown that even a little dependence between lives can lead to much higher uncertainty. Therefore, the ability to assess and incorporate the appropriate dependence structure, whilst allowing for extreme observations, significantly improves the pricing and risk management of life-benefit products.